Khaos pics - for Scope
Yesterday I made a mistake in my post on the Yahoo HANS board. The first item on the left of the third row down is Diet Rockstar. So HANS has 19/37 slots. Red Bull is second with 8/37. What I really like is the Full Throttle at 1/37 (bottom row, third from the right.)
The pics should enlarge if you click on them.
The cooler case in Sorrento Valley on Mira Mesa Blvd. in northern San Diego.
posted by sjh5569 @ 10:52 PM
22 Comments:
Ah yes, I also wanted to mention that I thought it was interesting that the Khaos is only 140 calories per can instead of the usual 200 for green and the 60 for blue.
SJH:
- In this medium are you able to police & remove or block ?? :
- - store ck bashers
- - shorts who bash longs
- - traders who bash fundamentals
- If you can assure me of a more civilized environment, then I will post here exclusively ... That includes past store ck data, EPSguesstimates, technical analysis comments, fundamental analysis comments, local color that I've collected, helpful hints/info, IBD news, comments, & analysis ..
- I may, however, at some point need to volunteer to help w/Hurricance Katrina Evacuees who are flooding into our community ...
- I also will be posting less as I ramp up to train for a 10K race & other fitness goals ..
- I do not have time to wade through useless, ignorant, basher, & other posts so I'd welcome a sane environment ..
- If you can assure me of the above, then you can use my name to encourage longs who have caught the "Monster"VISION to migrate over here ...
- I would like to see all of the helpful posters like LI_SHARK who contribute & are interested in sane & intelligent discussion to move here, as well as the loyal store ck'rs, long term investors, etc ...
Hey there scope...
I dont think I can give ya what you want on a regular basis. I'll keep up the site as best I can but sometimes there are other things to do.
Anyhow, post a test message and I'll try to delete it. It looks like I can police it but the easiest way to find out is to test it.
Finally, I too would like to see you stick around at the Yahoo site. I just want ot collect the goodies from over there and add some graphs here.
I started this because I was frustrated I couldn't find the old goodies in the Yahoo archive because the search function there is pretty weak.
SJH:
- I don't plan on posting minute by minute like others who are trading & I don't think that the traffic of the others will be a problem because it takes a little more effort to get here ... BUT ... This could be a great place to archive & save lots of time in re-peating things constantly ...
- I will consider what you've said about still posting at Yahoo but I might could refer them back here for thoughts & observations that seem to be unwelcome over there to short sellers & bashers .. They don't have to come over .. Those who are interested can take a look & hopefully your BLOG will be picked up by search engines ???
- I could post certain things & just update them periodically ... The nice thing here is that the poster can delete his own work & replace it w/an updated list or whatever ...
- I have saved things in Lotus & WordPerfect that could be archived here such as "how to do store cks" ...
- You've sort of created 2 "button/tab" categories .. can you create others called:
- IBD related news & commentary
- The Week In Review
- Fundamental Analysis
- Technical Analysis
- Store Cks & Mkt Channels
- EPSguesstimates
- Local Color
- MonsterEnergy(TM) Website notes
- Blue Sky Website notes
- Hansen Naturals Website notes
- Helpful Hints
- Competition
- SWOT Analysis
- Thanks - You've already done a lot of work .. I'd appreciate having a place to post & if Yahooligans don't like these subjects then they don't have to look at them but we long term investors don't have to wade through their short sighted rants either .. I don't have time for that anymore & as the stock gets more & more popular that board is going to get less & less useful ..
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
SMARTMONEY ARTICLE ABOUT ACCELERATING GROWTH REFERS TO SUCCESS IN STOCK SCREENER W/(HANS)
The Mouse Maker That Roared
By Jack Hough
September 7, 2005
A MOUSE AND KEYBOARD MAKER might not sound like the kind of next-big-thing company that deserves a spot among your tech holdings. But what about a mouse and keyboard maker that has expanded into add-ons for iPods and gaming consoles?
Shares of the company we'll look at today have climbed a stellar 68% over the past year. And its sales are growing faster now than they have in the past; the company caught our attention via our Accelerating Sales Growth screen.
The rationale behind this screen more or less speaks for itself. Just keep three things in mind. First, fast-growing companies often show impressive sales growth long before their margins catch up. So a screen for accelerating sales growth can often catch up-and-comers before, say, a search for accelerating earnings growth.
Second, acceleration is not the same as speed. That is, this screen doesn't look for the fastest sales growers on the market. Those mostly already have high price tags to match. But companies whose growth rates are in transition aren't always fully priced by investors.
Spotlight Stock
1 Logitech (LOGI2)
Designs, manufactures and markets a variety of personal interface products for personal computers and other digital platforms.
Wednesday's Close $38.51
Market Value $3.4 billion
Trailing 12-Month Sales $1.6 billion
Forward P/E 21
Proj. Long-Term EPS Growth Rate 13%
Additional Data:
Earnings3 | Financials4 | Key Ratios5 | Ratings6 | Insiders7
Third, sales growth acceleration is out of the ordinary. That is, companies' sales are meant to slow as they mature and saturate their markets. So a sudden boost in their growth rates means that something is going unusually right, and that something often plays out over several quarters or several years. So companies that show up as having already boosted their sales growth rates might have plenty of oomph left in their shares, even if they're already up a bit.
For example, we featured a little-known producer of energy drinks, Corona, Calif.-based Hansen Natural (HANS8), in an Accelerating Sales Growth screen in June ("A Star in the Fizz Biz9"). Its hyperactive shares had posted a 19-fold gain over the prior three years. We found reason to believe they were still cheap. Readers who bought then have made a quick 17%, vs. the broader market's 2% increase.
Use our stock screener10 anytime you like to run our Accelerating Sales Growth search for yourself. Either plug in the search criteria from our recipe11, or just choose the preprogrammed search on the pull-down menu. Recently it produced eight screen survivors12 from a starting database of more than 9,000. Let's look at our mouse-monger.
Based in Switzerland, Logitech (LOGI13) makes, well, a lot. There are mice and keyboards for computer users who want to upgrade from the gear their machines came with. Choices range from a Bluetooth PC keyboard to a cordless laptop mouse for people who can't get used to those built-in touch pads. The company also sells webcams, remote controls, speaker systems, headsets and microphones. It makes game pads for all of the major consoles, as well as gaming mice for PCs. Also, the company has a line of gear designed for use with Apple Computer's (AAPL14) iPod, including speakers, wireless receivers and headphones. And then there's James Bond-style doodads like a digital pen that remembers everything you write, downloads it to your computer and turns it into word-processor text.
Of course, that's just the branded stuff. Logitech started as a provider of nonbranded peripherals to computer manufacturers, and still brings in 13% of its sales that way. Total sales for the company over the past year added up to $1.6 billion.
First-quarter results for the company, reported July 20, showed sales increasing 26% year-over-year to $335 million. Retail sales improved by 27% while sales to manufacturers increased 17%. Earnings grew 19% to $22.4 million. Per-share earnings of 23 cents topped analysts' estimates by a penny. Management credited the growth to the popularity of its iPod products and its voice-over-Internet headsets. Audio products carry lower margins than the rest of the company's gear, which is why sales grew faster than earnings. Gross margin for the quarter dipped two percentage points to 32.1%.
These results came from the company's seasonally weakest quarter. Analysts say they bode well for the rest of the year's numbers, especially the Christmas quarter, which brings in a third of annual sales and more than 40% of profits. Also, industry research groups project that the base of iPod and iPod-like portable music players will expand five-fold to 500 million units by 2010. Logitech has scheduled its first-ever U.S. analyst meeting in November to talk about its growth plans.
All told, analysts figure that Logitech will boost its earnings by 13% annually over the next five years. With shares trading at about 21 times forward earnings, the stock's price/earnings-to-growth, or PEG, ratio works out to about 1.6, on par with the broader market and other computer-peripheral makers. Logitech, though, has topped estimates now for three quarters running. Investors who believe iPod and gaming peripherals will continue to generate upside earnings surprises through Christmas and beyond should find Logitech's current share price plenty reasonable.
""MONSTER"" FORBES ARTICLE::::
Maltbie's Mix
Long: Hansen Natural; Short: Electronic Arts
Robert Maltbie, 09.08.05, 3:40 PM ET
Robert Maltbie, money manager and chief executive of Stockjock.com, selects a pair of stocks--one he recommends investors to go long on, and the other that they should short.
The Long
Hansen Natural (nasdaq: HANS - news - people )
Recent Price: $44
Target Price: $65
The Thinking
Aside from having strong fundamentals, what's there not to like about a company that has been growing, top line, near high double-digits, and, bottom line, in the triple digits? Moreover, cash is plenty to consider alternative growth strategies, including acquisitions--or can be available for other considerations, such as a stock buyback or a dividend payout.
Hansen Natural, a producer of juices and energy drinks, has been operating on all cylinders and management believes that business remains robust and will continue to explore all channels to grow sales and expand distribution. In its recent second-quarter report, revenue grew by 86% and earnings rose 191%. High gross margins on its energy and sports beverages contributed significantly to the company's profitability.
Moving ahead, the company plans to add several new drinks to its current line of beverages to diversify and capture more market share. It plans to capitalize on the rising popularity of energy and sports drinks with young adults and athletes, while continuing to leverage its success with many extreme-sports enthusiasts and penetrate the health-conscious culture.
Another encouraging sign: There is plenty of room to expand geographically and grow its distribution channels. Hansen has yet to fully realize its potential outside of California, which has contributed less than 50%, while international sales tacked on roughly 1% of total sales in its most recent report.
The company has indicated that overall sales for July are up 68.5% and that its energy-drink category continues to grow at above-normal rate. According to Nielsen estimates, energy drinks sold at gas and convenience stores are growing at 68.8%, and sales of alternative beverages in general are growing four times faster through these channels than traditional grocery stores.
Hansen's products, particularly its energy drinks, are growing faster than the category average--190% by some estimates in gas and convenience store channels. Considering its market potential and management's guidance, we expect the company to earn $2 per share on revenue of $301.7 million for fiscal 2005 and grow earnings per share to $2.50 on revenue of $356.7 million for fiscal 2006. Based on these metrics and growth potential, discounting for risks, our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model values Hansen at $65 per share.
The Short
Electronic Arts (nasdaq: ERTS - news - people )
Recent Price: $58
Target Price: $45
The Thinking
Electronic Arts recently reported a terrible quarter (a net loss of $58 million, or 19 cents per share on sales of $365 million compared with profits of $24.2 million, or 8 cents per share on revenue of $431.6 million a year ago), lowered its earnings estimates and dimmed its forecasts. Yet, the stock was hardly touched. I wonder if investors got a chance to dig in and comb through the details. This tells me that everyone seems to have turned over and forgotten about what happened to it and other publishers from 1993 to 1994, and again in 2001.
In the past, during platform transitions, publishers' profits were hit hard. The videogame industry as a whole is currently going through one of its periodic slowdowns in preparation for the new generation of game consoles. Faced with weakening consumer demand, rising R&D costs (driven mostly by development of next-generation tools, technologies, licensing, titles and the likes), limiting pricing power and stiffening competition--publishers' margins as well as top and bottom lines will deteriorate.
Weaker players will be particularly vulnerable, and many will be shaken out. Smaller players like Atari, Midway Games (nyse: MWY - news - people ) and Majesco Entertainment have already reported slumping sales and escalating costs and issued disappointing guidance. Last year, weaker competitors such as Acclaim Entertainment filed for bankruptcy and Eidos (nasdaq: EIDSY - news - people ) had to sell its assets to SCi in the U.K.
Meanwhile, larger publishers such as Electronic Arts, Take-Two Interactive (nasdaq: TTWO - news - people ), THQ (nasdaq: THQI - news - people ) and Activision (nasdaq: ATVI - news - people ) will be trying to gobble up smaller development houses and will have to spend more resources and capital to defend its turf. We had seen how Electronic Arts had to shell out millions last year to secure contracts with The Walt Disney Co.'s (nyse: DIS - news - people ) ESPN, the NFL and other major sports leagues to fend off Take-Two's encroachment into the major league sports arena.
We believe that industrywide eroding earnings fundamentals and the uncertainty about the platform transition to the next generation of game consoles do not offer much upside to publishers. Considering product delays, coupled with reduced visibility and transition risks, looking at Electronic Arts' current valuation--over 40 times trailing 12-month earnings and over 30 times next year's earnings--valuation is a little pricey. Such high multiple makes Electronic Arts very vulnerable in any correction. Any hiccup by the company or lost of market share will send investors away fast. Based on next year's EPS of $1.85, with a long-term growth rate of 18%, after discounting for risk, at 25 times 2007 earnings, we see fair value at $45.
Disclosure: Maltbie's firm is currently long on Hansen.
More Maltbie's Mixes
Robert Maltbie is a principal of California-based Millennium Asset Management.
Want to track news by this author or about this industry? Forbes Attache makes it easy. Click here.
- $49 THEN, $49 NOW ...
- Nearly 2 weeks after the post that is referenced below ... I CONTINUE TO EXPECT CONSOLIDATION AT AROUND $49 AS THE SHARES BUILD A BASE ... DOWN DAYS HAVE BEEN ON LOWER VOLUME ... There was a lot of buying at the $49 level on the way up so I figure that there s/b a significant amount of overhead resistance to overcome in that same area ...
- However, as the volume whittles it away, we will eventually break out on higher volume ..
- At some point I'd expect us to break out on higher volume, set a pivot point, & possibly form a handle on lesser volume ...
- We are currently forming the right side of what may turn out to be a cup & handle pattern ...
- Last Summer we formed a sloppy cup & the handle failed ... There were artificial interruptions of what might have been a classic pattern ... #1-Mgt commented & aborted a smooth cup, #2-Seems like there was an erroneous article .. Like the friendly & gentle Frankenstein .. This "Monster" has often been mis-understood ... ! ...
- AUGUST MESSAGE FROM W/IN THE BOTTOM OF THE CUP ...
- RE:
Re: price up on increase in volume ..
by: scopeoutthemonster (M/Wazoo on the Brazos, TX)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 08/30/05 08:22 pm
Msg: 36449 of 36924
- go to www.smartmoney.com & play w/your own "what-if?" scenarios ,..
- go to the tab for tools & then the price calculator ..
- the premutations are endless ..
- SHARK is preparing for a Labor Day BBQ & then trip to Colorado ..
- VectorVest.com does a similar valuation w/their own model & parameters ..
- my experience w/the mkt & (HANS) has been that we catch up w/the valuation w/in 4-6 months ..
- on the current base building .. I suspect that we'll have some sideways consolidation in the $49 area .. before resuming the rest of the right side of a possible cup & handle pattern .. we could have as few as 20 calendar days left to reach the pivot point .. Assuming that we can continue to buck the mkt ...
Posted as a reply to: Msg 36447 by ntjfk
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
iT'S aLIVE !
www.monsterenergy.com/scripts/me_productKhaos.php
"MONSTER" SOLD OUT !
Atten:::: TARN & HANSHOPEFUL
by: scopeoutthemonster (M/Wazoo on the Brazos, TX)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 09/12/05 02:23 am
Msg: 36935 of 36935
- Could y'all post some of these great links on SJH's HANSEN Monster BLOG site so that they'll be archived for future reference ?
http://hansensmonster.blogspot.com/
- It'll also give us all a site to refer newbies to ...
- It looks like the "Monster"'s footprints are showing up everywhere ?! ...
- I discovered that "Monster" is sold out at my fav C store yesterday ... "I want my "Monster" ... Even the clerk knew it was missing from my purchase ... They are so overwhelmed at the distributor that they could not even make a delivery right away from Coors on the regular run ... The last time that this happened was New Year's 2005 ... We are having the same problem as last Summer'04 ... I expect to make more $ than Q2'05 but the Account Seeding has probably come to a halt just as last Summer as supply struggles to keep up w/demand so that limits how much we can grow Q:Q in the short run ... I expect that we'll see blowout #'s for Q4 & Q1'06 once Account Seeding can re-commence ...
- Thanks ...
PLEASE PARDON THE SPEELING ERRORS .. I TYPED THIS REAL TIME WHILE LISTENING TO THE BEVNET CC ... IT IS NOT PERFECTLY VERBATIM ... SOMETIMES IT IS THE READER'S DIGEST VERSION ..
BevNet Conference Call
11am ET ... 09/15/2005
MY COMMENT:
- RODNEY PRETTY MUCH BUSTED ALL OF THE CRITICS & SPECULATIVE NONSENSE ...
- BEVNET WILL HAVE THE MESSAGE AVAILABLE TO LISTEN TO ...
- I WILL POST THIS VERY ROUGH TRANSCRIPT ON THE BLOG FOR LONG TERM ARCHIVING & REFERENCE ... & FOR UNTIL THE AUDIO IS AVAILABLE ..
____ - Rough Intro & Histrionics ... before focusing on more specific questions .... ____
- Rodney Sack is being interviewed @ www.bevnet.com ....
- finished SEC stuff ... when they bought the co. along w/investors ... talking about 1st Energy ...
- split between DSD & Warehouse division ..
- 1997 Energy Drink in the DSD division .. Red Bull was coming in at the same time ..
- 2000 category became top heavy w/big guys coming in ... but category had not matured yet ,...
- Q. - Question on Khaos ..
- A. - Category is driven ("Monster") by image .. Everyone was out there w/an Energy Drink ...
..... A year ago Rumba ... a different distribution channel .. A morning segment for Energy Drinks .. Rumba is dedicated to that .. ......So morning drink for "Monster" brand loyalists is Khaos .. Positioned differently than any other drink on the mkt ..
- Q. - ....up & coming categories ..
......Blue Sky .. organics ... not grown as well as it has in Europe .. Down the line things may change .. ....There is a change in dairy at the moment .. perhaps to address the school issue .. but they are adding sugar so it seems like a miss by them ... Taste will prevail & will not live up to the taste & uses .. .....Energy Water .. category has not done as well ... Coca Cola has done a good job w/Propel .. by folding a category over .. but no others ... We are going to look to see what we can do in that category ...
- Q. - Propel has spent a fortune .. How do you respond to that ..
- A. - Versus using $100M & capturing eyeballs .. We've focused on trying to create an image for our brand .. position .. word of mouth mktg .. You have to know your brand & mkt .. e.g. .. MotoCross Team .. has given our brand credibility w/that group ... Las Vegas MonoRail was a way to make a very different statement .. better than a billboard ..
- Q. - #'s of brands ??
- A. - You have to spend a lot of time, energy, $, developing brand images etc .. Most of those brands will disappear ..
- Q. - Red Bull ?
- A. - Leader in the category .. Smaller now w/more players ... They have a positioning for our brand .. This size for our brand is efficacious .. Doesn't think they'll mess w/the success .. They are focused on their brand ... 12 packs coming but they will have to totally re-mkt if they change much else .. We hope to one day topple them from their leadership position .. They've been good at maintaining the price point .. Very Good ..
- Q. - Other products for other functionalities ?
- A. - Yes, Energy Drinks will stay pure .. Functional Drinks did not have the pull .. We had them .. Energy is universal though .. Soccer, Partiers, Truck Drivers, Soccer Moms, etc ... Common Denominator is Energy in our hectic lives .. We will develop other functions & will probably re-launch in another configuration ... Not the volumes & limits your mkts ..
- Q. - Shelf Space .. ?
- A. - Slotting Fees .. Can be like a revolving door .. you can get the shelf space if you pay but if your product does not sell you will lose it .. Kickoffs are often in regional convenience stores ... e.g. corporate stores like Circle K .. That's allowed entrants but they don't know what to do from there & they disappear .. It is all timing .. 16oz category proved itself .. Space was not big enough but now retailers have realized that there is more profit per space if you include Energy Drinks .. Everyone was originially trying to squash into the small space but now that shelf space dedicated to Energy Drinks is expanding ..
- Q. - CMA's phase out ?
- A. - Big guys secured not small guys .. So big .. Linear Feet .. We had to do presentation & pay slotting fees ..
- Q. - Full Throttle not making inroads .. Sales per Sell point have been pretty mediocre .. Rock Star .. has entered CC system .. It is one thing to get the physical distribution .. It is another thing to meet the challenge .. Many distributors have come over to us .. Due to no longer having the conflict of interest ..
- Q. - largest channel ?
- A. - C-Stores by far .. 4:1 w/grocery .. convenience channel is 60% .. next is grocery .. club stores .. on premise is not measured where Red Bull is very present .. Club Channel, Costco, SAM's, is very good for us ... Wal-Mart is taking 4-paks ..
- Q. - can sizes, resealables ?
- A. - Category is can vs. bottle .. We had 8oz bottle but it did not sell .. Plastic cheapens it .. Consumers pay a premium price .. If it does not work they don't come back .. We think that has kicked up the category .. We've wipe all of the other(than Red Bull) 8oz drinks off of the map because there is really no reason for them to be any more .. You can't be different for the sake of being different ... 24oz. You'd think somebody couldn't drink that much of an Energy Drink but they are proving that thought wrong .. Focus on 16oz still e.g. for multi packs due to cost & loss of fizz in bigger sizes ..
- Q. - International ?
- A. - Europe & Asia (vs. just Canada, Mexico, Caribbean) .. We are starting to open our eyes to good partners ... That is the key ... A credible player .. Existing beverage distributor .. W/trucks, channels, etc ..
- Q. - W/regards to the distribution Center ?
- A. - You have to go through Beer, Soft Drinks, Independents, whoever you can get .. Once you prove yourself you get the BIG guys ... BIG distributors ... E.g. Canada Dry for DC/Baltimore area, Snapple for NYC/NY area ... Stronger distributors ... We are continually increasing our quality of distribution ... We have close to 300 ..
- Q. - Why the new brands ?
- A. - “Monster” following would bring those who’d try but also bring new consumers into the category .. “LOST” ... did not have enough presence so we decided to increase it ... “LOST 5-0" was to increase the Mid-West versus the coasts only .... More Presence for the brand ..
- Q. - Specialty ... Protein, Glucosamine, .....We have developed ... Glucosamine is #1 supplement in USA ...
- A. - I can’t give you business advice .. More specialized .. Probably health food stores .. We’ve not gone into that ..
- Q. - Slotting Fees ? ..
- A. - Gocery Stores = You pay the set fee & hope that you sell enough to get the pay back of your fees ... C-Stores = Sometimes is the premiums included, etc ..
- Q. - Favorite Mkts in SE USA ... Full Throttle/Coca Cola .. .Drops in price .. Price Wars ?
- A. - Aggressive Mkts yes but we see Coke doing promotions & not price .. Has not affected us yet .. People are buying a premium product & $.20 is not going to make a diff ... Not new price points .. We do not see a change in price points by Coca Cola .. He will ck but has not come through that way to (HANS) ..
- Q. - Private Labels ?
- A. - Store Brands .. Trying to price very close to the same ... They have good margin .. We did “Joker” & keep control .. Profitability is pretty reasonable ... Pretty comparable .. Nice piece of business for us .. Most of the other private labels will be there a while as cheap end of the mkt but they do not do as well & mkt is growing fast enough to absorb them ..
- Q. - Hispanic mkt ? ... (HANS)“Deuce” is out there but has not done as well ....
- A. - “Monster” is attracting them ..
- Q. - “Deuce” in CA doing well ?
- A. - “Monster”, “LOST”, “Rumba” maybe, are where we’ll concentrate ....
- Q. - Saturation & Slower Growth ... ? .... Gas Price affect ? .... slowing of C-Store growth ?
- A. - q2 is in 60% .... main brand “Monster” ... long way to grow still in individual still as well as new stores ... We still see substantial growth .. Gas price effect is specualtive .. We have seen no effect ...
- Q. - Time Release inventor w/patent calling ..
- A. - WE have that built in w/glucose ..
- Q. - Females coming into the category ? .... Small cans ?
- A. - YES, on females ........., Small Cans moving slower ... Females are drinking the 16oz .... ... Females & Males are Driving growth.... is male & female versus originally just males in Europe ...
MY COMMENT:
- RODNEY PRETTY MUCH BUSTED ALL OF THE CRITICS & SPECULATIVE NONSENSE ...
- BEVNET WILL HAVE THE MESSAGE AVAILABLE TO LISTEN TO ...
- I WILL POST THIS VERY ROUGH TRANSCRIPT ON THE BLOG FOR LONG TERM ARCHIVING & REFERENCE ... & FOR UNTIL THE AUDIO IS AVAILABLE ..
___DOLDRUMS 'TIL NOVEMBER :::::____
DOLDRUMS 'til November !
by: scopeoutthemonster (M/Wazoo on the Brazos, TX)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 09/15/05 03:24 pm
Msg: 37199 of 37199
__For investors only:__
- hunker down ..
- don't expect much 'til November ..
- We are having a virtual repeat of Q3'05..
- Correction & base building started later ..
- Probably will end around the same time ...
- Sales/Store Cks are good ..
- I spent 5 months last year encouraging investors who want long term capital gains to stay put & out of the hands of the tax man .. Same story now ..
- I fully expect triple digit EPS growth based upon 60+% growth in sales .. The fundamental story has not changed ..
- In the meantime I will continue store cks & build a wealth of resources at the BLOG site .. I may develop my own BLOG site so that I can develop an Encyclopedia of categories for easier topical study .. That way when the newbies flood in we won't have to repeat the same old stories/data but can refer folks over there ..
Atten: MAITSM
by: scopeoutthemonster (M/Wazoo on the Brazos, TX)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 09/15/05 08:46 pm
Msg: 37234 of 37234
__YOU ASKED :::::::::::::::::::::
Re: DOLDRUMS 'til November !
by: maitssm
Long-Term Sentiment: Buy 09/15/05 05:33 pm
Msg: 37218 of 37230
- scope,
- thanks for posting the transcript of the cc on the blog webiste.
- I have a question for you and anybody who listened to the cc.
- I am not sure whether Rodney mentioned that sales were up 60%+ during this quarter or he meant that convenience store channel penetration was 60%+. It was a bit akward because a few seconds earlier I believe he said that he has not seen the figures since the last quarter; thus I assume that he was talking about c-store channel penetration as I guess he gets a daily or weakly update on revenues.
- Would highly appreciate if anybody who listened to the cc could post his take on this.
Thanks again to scope for posting the transcript.
- maitssm
Posted as a reply to: Msg 37215 by scopeoutthemonster
__MY ANSWER :::::::::::::::::::::::::::
- HE SAID NEITHER !
- You are speaking of 2 different questioners .. There coincidentally happened to be 2 different 60_something_% answers to 2 separate questions ...
- #1 - he wasn't talking about q3 .. when he said sales growth was in the 60'S(%) for q2 ... (over-all w/"Monster" as the main product) ... Whether he "meant" to say that or not I do not know ... we all know that at Q2 CC that he said that sales growth was 68% in July'05 .. ... we all knew this .. but not necessarily the BevNet Crowd ...
- #2 - he wasn't talking about C-Store penetration .. when he was talking about (HANS) sources of sales ... like a pie chart .. 60% C-Stores, 15% Grocery(he said 4:1), Rest 25% an eclectic mix of warehouse/big box, club scene, etc., etc., ..
PLEASE RE-PERUSE THE BLOG SITE TRANSCRIPT & YOU'LL NOTICE THAT THOSE SUBJECTS WERE FROM 2 SEPARATE QUESTIONERS ..
http://hansensmonster.blogspot.com/2005/08/khaos-pics-for-scope.html
- The lady who asked about gas price effects, asked 4 questions which always is bad because it mixes up the speaker & answers don't always all get answered & answers don't necessarily come out in the same order .. I said, Oh Lord, when she asked all four in one breath .. You have to remember I was flying along typing it all out & wondering """How in the Sam Hill am I going to get that answer down in logical order .. ? .... """
- As far as gas prices causing "Monster" sales to fall she was told in no uncertain terms that the assertion was purely speculative ... BUNK ! ..
- All of the propaganda from shorts was said/shown to be nonsense ..
- e.g. slowing C-Store growth was poo-poo'd ... saturation was poo poo'd ... slower growth in general was poo poo'd ..
- OVERALL I THOUGHT IT WAS A GREAT CC ..
- You have to remember though that this was for the Beverage Industry & that all of the #'s are not yet in .. There may have been some Wall Street goombas expecting more guidance .. Since they did not get it, some may have unloaded .. Their problem ! .. Big mistake, HUGE .. They don't know or understand these guys ...
Posted as a reply to: Msg 37218 by maitssm
___HOW TO REPLAY THE BEVNET CC:___
Thank you for attending yesterday's edition of "Beverage Companies at the
Cutting Edge" with Rodney Sacks.
We are pleased to offer a free replay of the conference call:
Replay Domestic:
800-642-1687;
Replay International:
706-645-9291
Replay Pin ID#: 9106281
The replay is available for 1 week.
________"MONSTER" MARKETING_______
Just on MTV that my niece was
by: LETTHE_BIGDOG_EAT_1 (69/M/New York) 09/16/05 04:03 pm
Msg: 37323 of 37327
watching was Motor Cross Champ, Tedesco. He was showing off his house in Calif. Went room to room, in the kitchen he opened up the refrig and there was about 6 cans of Monster Green. When he showed his winning bike, there was a big Monster logo on the front fender.
Re: Just on MTV that my niece was
by: scopeoutthemonster (M/Wazoo on the Brazos, TX)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 09/16/05 04:31 pm
Msg: 37327 of 37327
- MonsterEnergy(TM) sponsored the "Kawasaki - Triple crown of MotoCross" this Summer ..
- final event was 9/3 & 4 in Delmont, PA ..
- Good publicity ..
- I kept the can w/the Motorcyle on it ..
- You also have to wonder if that shouldn't open up some contacts/networking in Japan/Asia for "Monster" distribution w/a well healed drink distributor ...
- ditto w/Billabong in Australia, New Zealand, & South Africa ...
- MonsterEnergy(TM) sponsored the Hawaii Pipeline last Winter in place of "Hansen's Energy Pro" (6oz drink) from the prior year .. Hopefully they have that contract again this Winter for when the big waves come rolling in ..
Posted as a reply to: Msg 37323 by LETTHE_BIGDOG_EAT_1
What was that tidbit at the end about the Time Release inventor?
2500 SHARES = $1M W/IN 2 YEARS
by: scopeoutthemonster (M/Wazoo on the Brazos, TX)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 09/16/05 10:07 pm
Msg: 37342 of 37342
___ 2500 SHARES = $1M W/IN 2 YEARS ___
- That is the pre-split goal ..
- I believe in beginning w/the end in mind .. Take it or leave it .. I won't budge ..
- That means that the new goal is the same but let's adjust the shares ...
- Our 2500 share baskets have split & doubled SO .. We now have 5000 shares in our basket for each $1M target ...
- That requires a post-split price of $200 & not $400 ... I have never talked about a price target because I have never known how many splits there might be .. I just set how many shares y'all need to buy to have each $1M basket of shares ..
- A price of $200 sometime in 2006 is very do-able ...
- Last year when I set the target for July '05 we were at $18 ... pre-split ,... & the goal was $76 ... ... NO one .. NADA .. Thought that could happen & I was called a nut case & irresponsible .. by gmlamb, the shorts, traders, & all the rest of that hit & run crowd .. ... We reached that just fine ,.. I announced the target for 2006 in the title above a year ago when we were right around ... $25(pre-split) ... NO one .. NADA .. Thought that could happen & I was called a nut case & irresponsible .. by gmlamb, the shorts, traders, & all the rest of that hit & run crowd .. We will reach that target just fine too ..
- I am sorry y'all but I'm no nut case & I'm not irresponsible .. .. I believe in beginning w/the end in mind .. Take it or leave it .. I won't budge ..
- & w/the stubborness of a Mississippi Mule I'm not going to let you forget that target ..
- What I am is a very savvy investor who can sniff out a prize like a Tennessee blood hound ..
- There are a lot of investors who've missed out on this story because they believed that crowd .. Don't be one of them .. They are all losers .. They are all now shocked & saddened to have missed the train .. Go ask JMAC how he feels now ... a year later ... He was a cry baby during the correction but at least he held out 'til near year end .. BUT even w/the correction of late he'd have tripled his $ since then too ..
SJH:
- The timed release "inventor", a woman, may or may not have been legitimate .. She said that she had a patent for encapsulation ... I am familiar w/the technology myself from experience at Southern Research Institute in micro-encapsulation ... We do have a lady scientist in BHM/AL who has her own company now so I was hoping that it was not her & if so that she was not going to be taken for a kook but handed off to someone who could put her in proper contact w/the right (HANS) folks .. She said that she was involved in the medical side of timed release .. Rodney told her that the glucose gave a timed release effect .. Also that you might not want the effect to last too long anyway(like Meds) .. PLUS .. IMHO .. There was really no way to tell if she was legit .. She needs to pursue her interest w/(HANS) through proper channels & not call Execs cold in a conference call .. If it had been me I'd have thanked her & referred her to proper communication channels .. I think that everyone was rather dumbfounded by the call .. She really should have been screened for her company, etc, & vetted before she was allowed through .. I blame that failure on the operators & the conference call contractor/sub-contractors ..
_________LOST 5-0__&__KHAOS________
5-0 and Khaos
by: kickinback48503 (29/M/The Motor City)
Long-Term Sentiment: Buy 09/30/05 09:42 am
Msg: 38606 of 38645
They are both available in my area now - SE Michigan
They both taste fantastic!!
I asked the clerk about sales. She told me that they stocked the new products two weeks ago and ran out the first week.
She said Lost 5-0 is outselling Lost.
Khaos is moving very quickly as well.
Still Long and Strong
~ Later
Increasingly I am frustrated by the apparent lack of support by Hansen's management for the Rumba Energy Juice product. It is a unique and excellent product and one that could reach a market well beyond the traditional energy drink consumer. It is by far my favorite energy beverage and everyone I have turned on to Rumba prefers it to traditional energy drinks including Monster. Anyone have any ideas about how to drum up some support for this product? It is still very hard to find in Pac NW and there is little or no evidence of any marketing support whatsoever. I have tried contacting Hansens via email but they never respond to my inquiries.
10/27/2005 WSJ article
by: yettirampage
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 10/27/05 01:30 pm
Msg: 40826 of 40892
Located on page 2 of the Personal Journal section appears below.
Smart Stock Screen/Spotlight on Efficiency
Stock dividends today are far smaller than they were a generation or two ago. That would be alright if companies had something better to do with their profits than return them to shareholders. Alas, not all of them do.
One way to tell which companies are worthy stewards of retained profits is to look at an efficiency measure called return on equity. ROE is calculated by dividing a year's worth of the companies earnings by its net worth, or its total assets minus total liabilities. Companies with high ROEs show that they're squeezing considerable profits out of the plants, equipment and other things they already own. That suggests they'll make good use of new assets paid for with reinvested earnings.
Managers looking to boost their ROEs can do so in one of three ways. They can increase profit margins by either cutting costs or raising prices. They can improve asset turns, or sales relative to the value of the company’s assets. Or they can simply borrow. Taking on more debt shrinks a company's net worth, giving the ROE ratio a smaller denominator and larger overall value. As useful as ROE is, that's its flaw. So when you use the measure make sure you look at debt too.
Our efficiency screen looks for ROEs of at least 20% and makes sure operating margins and debt capital ratios have improved versus their five year averages. It also looks for returns on invested capital, or ROI, of at least 15%. ROIC is similar to ROE, except that it adds debt onto the denominator instead of subtracting it, thereby outing overborrowers.
Other criteria: Sales and earnings each must have grown by 10% a year over the past five years, trailing 12 month sales must top $200 million, and average daily trading volume must total 100,000 share or more.
These companies boast solid returns on equity and strong earnings growth:
Hansen Natural (HANS)
Current Price 47.70
ROE 44%
5 Year Sales Growth 21% Forward PE (Current Year) 23
Data as of 10/24/2005
--Jack Hough
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